Syria’s Last Regime Days: Launching Study Results on Governance, Services, and Livelihoods

21 February 2025 - Damascus, Syria

On 21 February 2025, LUGARIT and the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, a program by the Syrian Forum USA (SFUSA), launched the findings of a research initiative examining governance, services, and the economy in Syria on the eve of the Assad regime collapse. This event, held at Omran’s office in Damascus, featured LUGARIT’s experts Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj and Zedoun Al Zoubi, who presented key insights from three newly published joint research papers.

This research provides a baseline for future comparative analysis. We hope this research effort will lead to the development of a Stability Index, with sub-indexes on Social Cohesion, Economic Viability, Political Stability, and Good Governance.

Research Papers Presented

This initiative resulted in three comprehensive studies:

• The Conditions of Governance in Syria Before 8 December 2024 (Published: January 17, 2025).  Link >

• On the Eve of the Regime’s Fall: Service Indicators in Syria (Published: January 27, 2025).  Link >

• The Heavy Legacy: The Political Economy of Livelihoods in Syria Before the Regime’s Collapse (Published: February 12, 2025).  Link >

These papers analyze how governance structures, public services, and economic conditions shaped Syrian society before the regime’s collapse, providing critical insights into Syria’s trajectory in the aftermath of political upheaval.

Research Methodology

The findings are based on a multi-sectoral field survey conducted across 253 districts and urban neighborhoods in Syria. The research team collected 1,258 data points through structured surveys and interviews with key informants. The methodology ensured geographical representation while maintaining quality control over data collection. The study examined governance structures, public service efficiency, and economic resilience from both quantitative indicators and community perceptions.

Key Findings

1. Governance 

• Governance structures varied across seven different models, shaped by political control and external influences.

• Public trust in governance was at an all-time low, with legitimacy crises affecting all factions.

• Centralized governance under the Assad regime proved highly inefficient, with corruption and mismanagement accelerating institutional collapse.

• Localized governance models in opposition-held areas were more responsive but often lacked resources and stability.

• Sustainable recovery requires inclusive governance frameworks that integrate local actors while addressing historical grievances.

2. Services

• Access to services was highly fragmented, with disparities even within the same political zones.

• The most effective service provision occurred in decentralized areas, where local actors played a role in decision-making.

• Electricity and infrastructure were the weakest sectors, requiring urgent investment for reconstruction.

• Food services were widely available but unaffordable due to economic instability and inflation.

• Diaspora engagement and decentralized service models are key to sustainable recovery efforts.

3. Livelihood / Economy

• Syria’s economy was already unsustainable before the collapse, relying on resource extraction rather than productive industries.

• Economic fragmentation resulted in stark regional inequalities, with communities forced to rely on informal economies, the war economy, and remittances for survival.

• Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) were the primary source of employment, highlighting the need to strengthen them.

• Housing, Land, and Property (HLP) issues are major obstacles to recovery, requiring legal and economic solutions. HLP rights are not only threatened by legal disputes but also by economic pressures.

• Reintegrating ex-combatants into civilian life is essential to prevent continued reliance on war economies.

Watch the Event

Watch the event video to hear Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj and Zedoun Al Zoubi discuss the research methodology and key findings.

Header Photo

Amidst the harsh winter and challenging realities of displacement, a young girl blows bubbles while sitting beside a muddy puddle in a refugee camp in Idlib, Syria.  19 December 2021.  Photo © Khaled Akacha - via Pexels.  Link >

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