On the Brink: Governance in Syria Before the Assad Regime’s Fall

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This research paper was developed by LUGARIT in collaboration with  Omran Center for Strategic StudiesIt analyzes Syria's fragmented governance models on the eve of the Assad Regime’s collapse, highlighting regional disparities, weak legitimacy, and the need for inclusive approaches to foster national reconciliation.

Summary

This research paper explores governance structures in Syria prior to 8 December 2024, analyzing the varied governance systems that emerged during the conflict across different regions. The research is based on extensive data gathered from all parts of Syria concluded three months before the unfolding of events in late November. It highlights the fragmentation of governance within the three main zones of influence: the regime-controlled central Syrian government, the Turkish-backed opposition zones, and the autonomous administration in the northeast. These three zones of control were further divided into seven distinct models of governance based on political, social, and economic dynamics. These governance models include: the central government main model and its variations especially in Dara’a and Sweidah; the Salvation Government in Idleb; the Syrian Interim Government in Northern Aleppo and Raqqa; as well as the Autonomous Self Administration model applied in areas under the Kurdish controlled Syrian Defence Forces, and its main variation defined as the civil administrations applied in areas with majority Arab populations.


Key findings include:



The paper concludes by emphasizing the critical need for inclusive governance models to facilitate national reconciliation and sustainable development in post-conflict Syria.

Header Photo

Aerial view of part of the city of Damascus, Syria. Photo © Fly_and_Dive - via ShutterStock.  Link >

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