This paper captures the volatile landscape in Syria on the eve of the collapse of the Assad regime, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). It provides a comprehensive overview of the fragmented governance landscape, economic collapse, and persistent security instability that define the country during this critical juncture. It highlights the legacies of divergent governance models, exacerbated by foreign influence and localized conflicts, as primary obstacles to achieving national unity.

Despite HTS’s control over significant territories, including Damascus, large parts of Syria remain outside its governance, complicating efforts to integrate various zones with distinct administrative and security frameworks. The paper emphasizes the dire economic challenges, where over 95% of the population lives in poverty, compounded by war economies, sanctions, and fractured resource control. Security instability, fuelled by local and regional conflicts and smuggling networks, further hampers recovery efforts.

Acknowledging the uncertainty and mistrust among local and international actors, the paper proposes a roadmap for stabilization. Key recommendations include adopting gradual, realistic transition frameworks to unify governance models, creating economic opportunities for refugee reintegration, and prioritizing context-specific constitutional dialogue that adapts to Syria’s unique realities. The paper underscores the importance of building international consensus, starting with key stakeholders like Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, while ensuring inclusive political representation and decentralization to foster long-term stability.

As a snapshot of Syria on the brink of transformation, the paper provides critical insights and pragmatic solutions for navigating the complexities of this pivotal moment in the country’s history.