Our team (pre-LUGARIT) was commissioned by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) to carry out a research project to establish a framework for understanding and modelling the regional challenges associated with conflicts in the Arab region and their impacts on the 2030 Development Agenda.  The research is intended to serve as a methodological and factual baseline for assessing the impact of conflicts on the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) region.

The project is organized into five parts, each addressing different aspects of the challenges and impacts of conflicts on development.

1. Defining the balance sheet of the MDG Process from 2000 to 2015

We review the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) process in the Arab region, examining historical trends and the political economy that shaped development during this period. 

Key findings: 

• Development commitments were intertwined with political patronage and rentier economics, leading to the empowerment of national and local elites. 

• The inability of nation-states to overcome development deadlocks contributed to the usurpation of public resources and influenced the delivery of public goods.

2. Impact of conflicts in the Arab region on development

We focus on the direct and indirect impacts of conflicts on the development process. It aggregates the SDGs into five pillars to assess delivery structures and their capacity, linking global indicators for peace and stability with resource availability and delivery capacity. 

key findings:  

• The Arab region has depleted significant resources and exhausted its resilience to manage future conflicts.

3. Long-term patterns of conflicts in the Arab region

We track long-term conflict patterns in the region, developing a framework for analyzing the relationship between conflicts and development trends. We also assess local, national, and regional layers of conflict drivers, focusing on key drivers for manageable modeling.

Key findings: 

• Development and conflicts are interrelated, often playing roles both as cause and effect. 

• Actors are ever re-assessing their position and conflict drivers are always changing dynamics. 

4. Envisioning Future Scenarios

We lay out a framework for future scenarios, based on characteristics and drivers of regional and national conflicts. 

Key outputs: 

• We present four plausible scenarios, ranging from progressive conflict resolution with ongoing regional tensions to regional agreements that manage but don't resolve local conflicts. 

• We discuss critical issues to watch for and how scenarios could unfold, impacting the achievement of SDGs in the region.

5. Policy Recommendations

We provide policy recommendations for decision-makers, using development as a framework for de-conflicting and creating cycles of peace and development. 

Key take aways: 

• We emphasize the importance of creating geographies of peace, enhancing fiscal space for development, and evolving equitable and accountable political economies. 

• We underline the critical need for institutional evolution and policy adjustments to avoid environmental disasters and conflicts.

Overall, the project provides an insightful analysis of how conflicts in the Arab region have shaped and been shaped by the development process. We underscore the complex interplay between political, economic, and social factors and offers a roadmap for future research and policy-making aimed at achieving sustainable development and peace in the region.