From Crisis to Markets: Syria’s Path to Economic Recovery

About

This policy paper was prepared as part of a project supported by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  It argues that Syria's economic recovery requires a balanced approach, integrating gradual liberalization, regulatory reforms, and social protections to ensure stability and sustainable growth.  

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, they do not reflect the official positions of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Summary

Syria's economic recovery is fraught with challenges. The state's resources are depleted, and ongoing economic sanctions continue to restrict foreign investment and limit aid to humanitarian sectors. Despite these constraints, the new authorities in Damascus are accelerating efforts to liberalize the economy, aiming to attract foreign direct investments (FDIs) and encourage the return of Syrian capital. However, relying solely on external investments risks triggering high inflation before economic benefits can materialize into sustainable job creation.


A key concern is balancing economic liberalization with social stability. With over half of Syria's population living in abject poverty, structural reforms must be accompanied by a robust social safety net to prevent further economic distress. The informal sector, which dominates Syria’s economic landscape, presents another challenge—most jobs will likely emerge from micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), which operate largely outside formal regulatory frameworks. Strengthening economic governance will require carefully calibrated regulations to integrate these businesses into the formal economy while ensuring they remain viable.


Monetary policy will also play a pivotal role in economic stabilization. Exploring innovative mechanisms, such as digital currencies, could help shore up the Syrian pound. However, such efforts necessitate transparency and an independent central bank—an institution the new authorities are likely to distrust due to its past association with the regime. Managing Syria’s fragmented monetary system will require merging various wartime financial models under a unified regulatory framework.


Ultimately, Syria’s economic recovery hinges on the implementation of solid, transparent, and accountable fiscal and monetary policies. While the central bank has historically upheld strong regulatory traditions, the new leadership may attempt to bypass existing institutions, potentially undermining efforts to build a stable, market-driven economy.

Date

11 March 2025


Publisher 

LUGARIT >


Authors

Related Project

Year:  2024 - 2025

Client:  Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

A project to support peace and reconciliation in Syria by engaging with civic actors and community leadership. Through dialogue, public discussions, workshops, and stakeholder consultations, the initiative strengthens grassroots activism and promotes inclusive dialogue, aiming to build a resilient foundation for Syria’s future.

Read more >

Header Photo

Syria's 25 pound banknote from 1988, showing the Central Bank of Syria at the Sabaa Bahrat Square in Damascus.  Photo © Prachaya Roekdeethaweesab - via ShutterStock.  Link>

Share Post