Post-conflict elections are often hailed as milestones of democratic renewal. Yet, as this commentary demonstrates, premature elections—particularly in fragile contexts like Syria—can exacerbate division and risk renewed conflict. Drawing on Libya’s experience post-2011, the article argues that elections held before rebuilding state institutions, securing a legitimate monopoly on force, and achieving national consensus tend to reproduce, rather than resolve, existing fractures.

Libya’s early electoral process legitimized military equilibria rather than political inclusion. With militias dominating the scene, weak institutions collapsed under coercion, and public trust eroded. Elections, instead of fostering a civic compact, intensified factionalism and paved the way for renewed violence.

Syria shares many of these structural vulnerabilities. It lacks unified security forces, an impartial judiciary, sovereign institutions, and a shared vision of the future state. In this landscape, elections risk becoming expressions of local power or identity politics rather than vehicles for national reconciliation. The current Syrian approach—particularly the process outlined in Article 24 of the Constitutional Declaration and Decree 66—mirrors patterns of authoritarian centralization. These legal instruments concentrate power in the presidency, lack transparency, and exclude key stakeholders, thereby risking the creation of a rubber-stamp parliament with little democratic legitimacy.

Instead, the article advocates a phased, reform-first approach. This includes institution-building, consensus-based governance, and embedding transitional justice prior to any national elections. Such sequencing is essential not only to avoid Libya’s mistakes but to lay the groundwork for an inclusive, stable, and genuinely democratic Syrian transition. Elections must emerge from a broad-based political settlement—not substitute for one. Only then can they fulfill their promise as instruments of renewal, rather than flashpoints for further fragmentation.