MENA Futures 2032: Scenarios for the Region’s Development

12 October 2022 - Frankfurt, Germany

In an ambitious move to forecast the future development of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), in partnership with GIZ, embarked on a project named "MENA FUTURES 2032". This strategic initiative aims to envision scenarios for the MENA region's future, considering various transformative factors such as climate change, digitalization, demographic shifts, and geopolitical dynamics.

The project underscores the volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world we inhabit, recognizing the need for robust policies that can adapt and thrive under such conditions. Approximately 200 experts from and on the MENA region were invited to collaborate in this foresight process, aiming to provide a broad and comprehensive perspective on potential future developments. Through online surveys and workshops, these experts devised future scenarios across five thematic sectors: Political Factors and Governance, Economic Development (including Technology), Social Development, Peace and Security, and Natural Living Conditions.

The approach was methodical and strategic. The first workshop focused on familiarizing participants with strategic foresight methodologies and developing initial scenario narratives. Here, participants created three types of scenarios: 'Slippery Slope', 'Transformative or Progressive', and 'Counterintuitive', each offering distinct perspectives on potential futures. The second workshop then focused on refining these narratives and discussing policy interventions to mitigate risks and leverage emerging opportunities.

Omar Abdulaziz Hallaj, a Partner at LUGARIT, participated in the economic development working group, where three scenarios were envisioned for economic development of the MENA region:

Slippery Slope Scenario: This bleak outlook sees the MENA region grappling with low economic productivity, high unemployment, especially among youth and women, and the persistent challenge of rentier states. The region's failure to effectively harness the 4th Industrial Revolution technologies exacerbates these issues, leading to increased civil unrest and geopolitical manipulation by global powers.
Transformative Scenario: A more optimistic vision, where the digital economy in the MENA region flourishes, creating significant job opportunities and slowing the brain drain. This scenario highlights the success stories of regional unicorns and the emergence of the MENA as a global healthcare center. A shift towards sustainability and a circular economy paves the way for vibrant start-ups and more efficient, inclusive economic practices.
Counterintuitive Scenario: Here, the MENA region and the EU form a strategic partnership, moving beyond the traditional donor-recipient dynamic. This approach leads to diversified economic growth, increased job creation, and the empowerment of marginalized groups, including rural populations and women. The focus on digital, energy, health, and tourism sectors, supported by EU funds, fosters a new Arab middle-class, contributing to political and economic stability.

"MENA FUTURES 2032" stands as a testament to the power of collaborative foresight in shaping future policies. By embracing a diverse range of perspectives and scenarios, the project aims to navigate the complex challenges facing the region and unlock new pathways for sustainable and inclusive economic development. The outcomes of this extensive and collaborative effort will now guide the MENA strategy of the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development in the coming years.

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