In the wake of Syria’s protracted conflict, this commentary urges a fundamental rethink of how investment is pursued during reconstruction. It argues that the current push for sweeping, unconditional incentives—such as tax exemptions of up to 80%—risks reinforcing elite capture, deepening regional disparities, and undermining the legitimacy of the state. Instead, it calls for a performance-based, socially intelligent investment architecture that prioritizes public value and territorial inclusion.

At its core, the paper emphasizes that not all investment is equal. Capital flows must be steered toward labor-intensive, socially beneficial sectors—such as agriculture, manufacturing, and essential services—and to regions that have been historically marginalized or devastated by conflict. Such targeting not only enhances social returns, but also counters the centralization of power and wealth.

The author highlights the dangers of reproducing regional models of unchecked liberalization seen in Lebanon and Iraq, where rapid capital inflows benefited political elites while hollowing out productive capacity and social trust. To avoid similar outcomes, the paper recommends transparent incentive frameworks, social and environmental impact assessments, and time-bound, reversible privileges for investors.

A central theme is the necessity of decentralization. The paper makes a strong case for integrating local governments into the investment approval and monitoring process, granting them a fair share of revenues and planning authority. Without such inclusion, investment risks displacing communities, weakening municipal services, and undermining local legitimacy, thus undermining the overall legitimacy of the State in the transitional period.

Finally, the paper calls on Syria’s central bank to adopt differentiated interest rate tools to channel credit towards priority sectors, while avoiding inflation and moral hazard. It advocates a coordinated investment strategy anchored in transparency, local ownership, and long-term equity. The goal is not to resist investment, but to ensure it serves national objectives for recovery rather than narrow interests—transforming capital inflows into inclusive, sustainable development.